Beşiktaş 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Beşiktaş, 2.00 for Fatih Karagümrük — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.10 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.206 / defence 0.988 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.702 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.128. Data: 2 Beşiktaş games / 2 Fatih Karagümrük games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 40% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 23%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 40% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Beşiktaş 1.10 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.206 / def 0.988 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.702 / def 1.013 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Fatih Karagümrük xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Beşiktaş 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 40% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.21) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.70x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
40%
2.50
37%
2.71
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
1.88
0.78
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.78 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Beşiktaş against 2.00 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Fatih Karagümrük in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Beşiktaş or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 4-1 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
0
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.10 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.21 / defence 0.99 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.70 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 40% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 23%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 2.00 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.