Başakşehir 0-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Başakşehir take on Kayserispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Kayserispor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Süper Lig matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kayserispor — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kayserispor are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.50 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.04 xG and Kayserispor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.813 / defence 1.131 | Kayserispor attack 0.704 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 0.920 / away 1.183. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Başakşehir games / 2 Kayserispor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 33% | Draw 39% | Kayserispor 28%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Kayserispor 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 33% | Draw 39% | Kayserispor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 44% | xG Başakşehir 1.04 / Kayserispor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.813 / def 1.131 | Kayserispor attack 0.704 / def 1.395 | league avg home 0.920 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Kayserispor xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Kayserispor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Kayserispor part of?
Başakşehir vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 33% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Başakşehir and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kayserispor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Kayserispor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 0.81x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
39%
2.56
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
1.99
0.94
Kayserispor xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.94 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kayserispor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Kayserispor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Kayserispor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2026, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
5
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Kayserispor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Kayserispor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 50% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Başakşehir's recent games and 50% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.04 xG and Kayserispor 0.94 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Kayserispor attack 0.70 / defence 1.40, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 33% | Draw 39% | Kayserispor 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 50%, Kayserispor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Kayserispor arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Kayserispor conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.