Başakşehir 2-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Başakşehir welcome Gaziantep FK to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 7W 1D 2L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 2.00 (Gaziantep FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Gaziantep FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 56% | Gaziantep FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.40 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.089 / defence 1.111 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.543 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.095. Data: 23 Başakşehir games / 23 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 54% | Draw 29% | Gaziantep FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Gaziantep FK 5.88. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Gaziantep FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 54% | Draw 29% | Gaziantep FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Başakşehir 1.40 / Gaziantep FK 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.089 / def 1.111 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.543 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Gaziantep FK xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 54% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
54%
1.84
29%
3.49
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.06
0.66
Gaziantep FK xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
4%
24.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.66 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 11W 4D 8L from 23 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 8L across 23 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.61 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 7W 1D 3L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.39 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 11W 4D 8L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.00 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Başakşehir
1
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 7, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 54%, Gaziantep FK 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Başakşehir) and 36% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir have failed to score in 27% of games; Gaziantep FK in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 27% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Başakşehir's recent games and 36% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Gaziantep FK 2-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.40 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.66 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.54 / defence 1.14, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 54% | Draw 29% | Gaziantep FK 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 56%, Gaziantep FK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.61 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.