Başakşehir 1-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Eyüpspor meet at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 28 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 2D 2L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eyüpspor (all games): 4W 3D 2L across 9 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.67 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 1.11. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Başakşehir, 1.67 for Eyüpspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Eyüpspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games.
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 67% and Eyüpspor 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 44% | Eyüpspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.21 xG and Eyüpspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.342 / defence 1.049 | Eyüpspor attack 0.890 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.333. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Başakşehir games / 9 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 59% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Eyüpspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Eyüpspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 28 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 59% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Başakşehir 2.21 / Eyüpspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.342 / def 1.049 | Eyüpspor attack 0.890 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Eyüpspor xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 28 October 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 59% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Başakşehir and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.11 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.34x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.89x) against Başakşehir's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 46/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
59%
1.69
20%
4.89
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.45
1.24
Eyüpspor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
11%
9.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
2%
44.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.24 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 5W 2D 2L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor's form line: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.67 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.56 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Eyüpspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.33 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
2
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Eyüpspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Başakşehir, 100% for Eyüpspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Başakşehir and 100% for Eyüpspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Başakşehir's games and 100% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Başakşehir's matches and 100% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Eyüpspor finished level at 1-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.21 xG and Eyüpspor 1.24 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.34 / defence 1.05 against Eyüpspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 59% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 44%, Eyüpspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.89 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.