Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Erzurumspor FK travel to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 December 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Erzurumspor FK stand at 3W 2D 3L from 8 Süper Lig matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Erzurumspor FK have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.38 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.70 PPG, Erzurumspor FK 1.38 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Erzurumspor FK in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Başakşehir 50% | Erzurumspor FK 12%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 62% | Erzurumspor FK 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.03 xG and Erzurumspor FK 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.236 / defence 0.912 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.606 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Data: 42 Başakşehir games / 8 Erzurumspor FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Erzurumspor FK 11%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Erzurumspor FK 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 40% | Erzurumspor FK 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Erzurumspor FK 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 41% | xG Başakşehir 2.03 / Erzurumspor FK 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.236 / def 0.912 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.606 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Erzurumspor FK xG
41%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 70% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Başakşehir and Erzurumspor FK will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Erzurumspor FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Erzurumspor FK in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Erzurumspor FK's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Erzurumspor FK's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.16
11%
9.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.67
0.65
Erzurumspor FK xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
9.27
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
1%
70.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.65 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Erzurumspor FK sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.38 PPG, Erzurumspor FK on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Başakşehir's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Erzurumspor FK have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Erzurumspor FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Erzurumspor FK are on 0.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK in 12%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Erzurumspor FK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Erzurumspor FK in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Erzurumspor FK have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Erzurumspor FK away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.75 PPG; Erzurumspor FK away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Erzurumspor FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Erzurumspor FK in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Erzurumspor FK tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 75%, Erzurumspor FK 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Başakşehir and 50% for Erzurumspor FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Erzurumspor FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 25% of Erzurumspor FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Başakşehir's matches and 50% of Erzurumspor FK's.
Do Başakşehir and Erzurumspor FK tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Erzurumspor FK in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.