Başakşehir 0-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 37%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Beşiktaş at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Başakşehir have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Başakşehir's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Başakşehir are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beşiktaş stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beşiktaş have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Beşiktaş's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Başakşehir's games and 70% of Beşiktaş's (from Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Başakşehir, 2 for Beşiktaş and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2024, ended Başakşehir 1–1 Beşiktaş — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 48% versus Beşiktaş 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Beşiktaş 48%). Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Başakşehir recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.46 xG and Beşiktaş 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.244 / defence 1.046 | Beşiktaş attack 1.061 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.308. Beşiktaş bring a tight defence (rating 0.785, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Başakşehir's projected output down. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 48 games and Beşiktaş's last 48.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 36%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.71 | Draw 3.75 | Beşiktaş 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 60% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 12 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Başakşehir 1.46 / Beşiktaş 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.244 / def 1.046 | Beşiktaş attack 1.061 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Başakşehir 0 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş part of?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 12) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 37% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Başakşehir and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.24) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 48 games and Beşiktaş's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.75
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.92
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.45 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 22W 10D 16L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 22W 10D 16L from 48 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.58 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 23 home games (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 7W 6D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.48 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 22W 10D 16L in their last 48 games (1.58 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 22W 10D 16L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Beşiktaş away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.78 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beşiktaş have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
5
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Beşiktaş 2-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 52%, Beşiktaş 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Başakşehir) and 52% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Beşiktaş matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 56% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Başakşehir's recent games and 52% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 87% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Beşiktaş finished level at 0-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.46 xG and Beşiktaş 1.45 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.24 / defence 1.05 against Beşiktaş attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 36%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Beşiktaş 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.58 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.