Başakşehir 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Beşiktaş at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 4 April 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 2, Beşiktaş 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 38% versus Beşiktaş 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 39% | Beşiktaş 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.49 xG and Beşiktaş 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.002 / defence 0.883 | Beşiktaş attack 0.942 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.206. Data: 66 Başakşehir games / 66 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 47% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 24%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Beşiktaş 4.17. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 40% | Beşiktaş 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 47% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Başakşehir 1.49 / Beşiktaş 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.002 / def 0.883 | Beşiktaş attack 0.942 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Beşiktaş xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 4 April 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Başakşehir 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş part of?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 47% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Başakşehir and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.00) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
47%
2.15
30%
3.37
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.49
1.00
Beşiktaş xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
5%
18.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.00 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 30W 14D 22L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 37W 13D 16L from 66 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.58 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (20W 4D 9L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 16W 7D 10L from 33 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.79 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Beşiktaş in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 30W 14D 22L in their last 66 games (1.58 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 37W 13D 16L in their last 66 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Beşiktaş away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.94 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Başakşehir
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 33%, Beşiktaş 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Başakşehir) and 54% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 54% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Başakşehir's recent games and 54% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, as Başakşehir and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.49 xG and Beşiktaş 1.00 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.00 / defence 0.88 against Beşiktaş attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 47% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 24%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 39%, Beşiktaş 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.58 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.