Başakşehir 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Alanyaspor meet at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Başakşehir have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Alanyaspor (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Alanyaspor are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Başakşehir, 4 for Alanyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 4–5 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 55% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 55% | Alanyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.889 / defence 0.958 | Alanyaspor attack 1.133 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.202. Data: 40 Başakşehir games / 41 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 40% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Başakşehir 1.23 / Alanyaspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.889 / def 0.958 | Alanyaspor attack 1.133 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 33% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Başakşehir and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Alanyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Başakşehir 3W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 4W.
What form are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (0.89) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.13x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.34
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.54
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.30 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 17W 8D 15L from 40 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 16L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.30 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 9W 6D 5L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 17W 8D 15L in their last 40 games (1.48 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Alanyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.65 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
2
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 55%, Alanyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Başakşehir) and 50% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Başakşehir's games and 55% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Başakşehir's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Alanyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Alanyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 37%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 55%, Alanyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.48 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.