Başakşehir 3-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Alanyaspor meet at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Alanyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Alanyaspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Başakşehir, 1.20 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Başakşehir, 3 for Alanyaspor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Başakşehir 0–2 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 36% versus Alanyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Alanyaspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.067 / defence 0.870 | Alanyaspor attack 0.775 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.277. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 55 games and Alanyaspor's last 55.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.97 | Draw 3.37 | Alanyaspor 5.09. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 50% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 20 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Başakşehir 1.51 / Alanyaspor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.067 / def 0.870 | Alanyaspor attack 0.775 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Alanyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 20) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 51% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Başakşehir and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.07) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.78x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 55 games and Alanyaspor's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.37
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.37
0.86
Alanyaspor xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
4%
23.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.86 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 24W 13D 18L from 55 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 24L across 55 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 16W 4D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 games (1.55 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Alanyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.93 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Başakşehir and Alanyaspor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
2
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 33%, Alanyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Başakşehir) and 63% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 26% of games; Alanyaspor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 48% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Başakşehir's recent games and 63% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 69% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Alanyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Alanyaspor 3-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.51 xG and Alanyaspor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Alanyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 20%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Alanyaspor 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.