Antalyaspor 2-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Sivasspor at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.30 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Antalyaspor have won 3, Sivasspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 60% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 50% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.74 xG and Sivasspor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.944 / defence 1.127 | Sivasspor attack 0.972 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.314. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Antalyaspor games / 51 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sivasspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Antalyaspor 1.74 / Sivasspor 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.944 / def 1.127 | Sivasspor attack 0.972 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Sivasspor xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Antalyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (6 meetings): Antalyaspor 3W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.76
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.18
1.44
Sivasspor xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
5%
18.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.44 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 16W 15D 19L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 19W 14D 17L from 50 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.26 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.68 PPG from 25 outings (11W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 16W 15D 19L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.68 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Sivasspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 56%, Sivasspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Antalyaspor) and 60% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 32% of games; Sivasspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Antalyaspor's games and 60% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 60% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Sivasspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Sivasspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.74 xG and Sivasspor 1.44 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Sivasspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 30%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 50%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.26 PPG, Sivasspor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.