Antalyaspor 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Antalyaspor welcome Başakşehir to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.10 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 2 for Başakşehir and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 49% versus Başakşehir 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 42% | Başakşehir 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.11 xG and Başakşehir 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.902 / defence 0.964 | Başakşehir attack 0.732 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.164. Data: 45 Antalyaspor games / 45 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Başakşehir 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 50% | Başakşehir 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Antalyaspor 1.11 / Başakşehir 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.902 / def 0.964 | Başakşehir attack 0.732 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Başakşehir xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Antalyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (4 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
40%
2.53
36%
2.75
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
1.94
0.82
Başakşehir xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.82 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 13W 11D 21L from 45 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 15L across 45 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 9W 5D 8L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.31 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 54%, Başakşehir 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antalyaspor) and 36% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Başakşehir in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 41% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 36% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.11 xG and Başakşehir 0.82 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Başakşehir attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 42%, Başakşehir 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.