Altay 3-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Altay take on Gaziantep FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Altay host Gaziantep FK at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Altay — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's home record at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gaziantep FK — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Altay have won 0, Gaziantep FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Altay in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 54% versus Gaziantep FK 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 54% | Gaziantep FK 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 0.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.611 / defence 1.187 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.499 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.175. Altay's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Altay games / 26 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 34% | Draw 38% | Gaziantep FK 28%. Fair-value odds: Altay 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Gaziantep FK 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Gaziantep FK's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 28% on No. Form rates corroborate: Altay 60% | Gaziantep FK 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 34% | Draw 38% | Gaziantep FK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Altay 0.81 / Gaziantep FK 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.611 / def 1.187 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.499 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Altay xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Gaziantep FK xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Altay vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Gaziantep FK?
Altay 3 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Altay vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Altay vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 34% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Altay and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Gaziantep FK?
Record (1 meetings): Altay 0W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Altay and Gaziantep FK in?
Altay (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Altay's attack at 0.61x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
38%
2.63
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Altay xG
Total xG
1.50
0.70
Gaziantep FK xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.51
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.2 | 15.5 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.8%.
How many goals are Altay and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Altay and 0.70 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Altay have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 6W 4D 16L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 10W 6D 10L from 26 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gaziantep FK are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Altay.
Venue Form
On home soil, Altay have posted 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Altay come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Altay are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 6W 4D 16L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Altay's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 0.92 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Altay or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Altay have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Altay
0
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Gaziantep FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 1, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Altay 3-2 Gaziantep FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 50%, Gaziantep FK 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Altay) and 33% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Altay have failed to score in 42% of games; Gaziantep FK in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Altay's recent matches and 25% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Altay vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Altay's recent games and 33% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Altay and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Altay edge out Gaziantep FK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay beat Gaziantep FK 3-2 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 0.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.70 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Altay beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.61 / defence 1.19 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.50 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 34% | Draw 38% | Gaziantep FK 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Altay win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 54%, Gaziantep FK 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Altay winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Altay (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.