Altay 2-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Altay at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Altay vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Altay host Beşiktaş at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Altay stand at 4W 0D 2L from 6 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Altay have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Altay's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 4W 2D 0L from 6 outings — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Altay 2.00 PPG, Beşiktaş 2.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Altay in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 67% versus Beşiktaş 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Altay 83% | Beşiktaş 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 1.30 xG and Beşiktaş 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 1.057 / defence 1.152 | Beşiktaş attack 0.994 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.080. Data: 6 Altay games / 6 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 38% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 35%. Fair-value odds: Altay 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Altay are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Altay offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Altay 33% | Beşiktaş 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 38% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Altay 1.30 / Beşiktaş 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 1.057 / def 1.152 | Beşiktaş attack 0.994 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Altay (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Altay xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Beşiktaş xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Altay vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Altay vs Beşiktaş?
Altay 2 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Altay vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is Altay vs Beşiktaş part of?
Altay vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 38% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Altay and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Altay and Beşiktaş in?
Altay (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-0L in 6 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Altay's attack rating (1.06) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.74
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Altay xG
Total xG
2.54
1.24
Beşiktaş xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Altay and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Altay and 1.24 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Altay's recent record stands at 4W 0D 2L from 6 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Altay, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 0L across 6 games — 2.33 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Altay on 2.00 PPG, Beşiktaş on 2.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Altay are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.17 scored and 0.83 conceded. Altay's scoring rate against Beşiktaş's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Altay have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 (2.33 PPG).
Have Altay or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Altay have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Altay
0
Draws
1
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Beşiktaş?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Altay.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 67%, Beşiktaş 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Altay and 67% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Altay's recent matches and 33% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Altay vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Altay's matches and 67% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Altay and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Altay edge out Beşiktaş 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 1.30 xG and Beşiktaş 1.24 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Beşiktaş attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 38% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 35%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 83%, Beşiktaş 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Altay 2.00 PPG, Beşiktaş 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Altay win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.