Alanyaspor 0-1 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
İstanbulspor make the trip to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
İstanbulspor have collected 0.00 PPG across 3 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 0D 3L. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. İstanbulspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Alanyaspor. A 1.70 PPG lead over İstanbulspor (1.70 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
İstanbulspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 100% versus İstanbulspor 0%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 67% | İstanbulspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.02 xG and İstanbulspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.238 / defence 1.187 | İstanbulspor attack 0.699 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.363. Data: 41 Alanyaspor games / 3 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 58% | Draw 21% | İstanbulspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | İstanbulspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 70% | İstanbulspor 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 58% | Draw 21% | İstanbulspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Alanyaspor 2.02 / İstanbulspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.238 / def 1.187 | İstanbulspor attack 0.699 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
İstanbulspor xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 1 İstanbulspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 58% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. İstanbulspor (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.24x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — İstanbulspor's attack (0.70x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.70
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.16
1.13
İstanbulspor xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
13%
7.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
3%
36.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.13 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 2D 0L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, İstanbulspor sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for İstanbulspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of İstanbulspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 0.00 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; İstanbulspor in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
İstanbulspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Alanyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 6-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against İstanbulspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
2
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Alanyaspor 6-0 İstanbulspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 100%, İstanbulspor 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Alanyaspor) and 33% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 0% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 33% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as İstanbulspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
İstanbulspor beat Alanyaspor 0-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.02 xG and İstanbulspor 1.13 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.24 / defence 1.19 against İstanbulspor attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 58% | Draw 21% | İstanbulspor 21%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a İstanbulspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 67%, İstanbulspor 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with İstanbulspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alanyaspor managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. İstanbulspor scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.