Alanyaspor 1-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Pendikspor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Alanyaspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Pendikspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pendikspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Pendikspor's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Pendikspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Alanyaspor 1–1 Pendikspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Pendikspor in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Pendikspor 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 50% | Pendikspor 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Pendikspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.18 xG and Pendikspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.985 / defence 1.144 | Pendikspor attack 0.943 / defence 1.469. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.205. Pendikspor's defence rating of 1.469 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alanyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 58 games and Pendikspor's last 22.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 23% | Pendikspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.79 | Draw 4.28 | Pendikspor 4.84. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.18 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Pendikspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Pendikspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 23% | Pendikspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Alanyaspor 2.18 / Pendikspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.985 / def 1.144 | Pendikspor attack 0.943 / def 1.469 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Pendikspor xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 56% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Alanyaspor and Pendikspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Pendikspor's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, Pendikspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 58 games and Pendikspor's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.28
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.48
1.30
Pendikspor xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
2%
42.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.30 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 6W 8D 8L from 22 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 10L across 22 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.18 PPG, Pendikspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 4W 4D 3L from their last 11 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pendikspor's away record stands at 2W 4D 5L across their last 11 away games, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.27 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 68%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Pendikspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Pendikspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Pendikspor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 0, Pendikspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Alanyaspor 1-1 Pendikspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Alanyaspor at 64%, Pendikspor at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Alanyaspor and 64% for Pendikspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Pendikspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Pendikspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Alanyaspor's games and 82% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Alanyaspor and Pendikspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Alanyaspor's matches and 64% of Pendikspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Pendikspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 73% of Pendikspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Pendikspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as Alanyaspor and Pendikspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.18 xG and Pendikspor 1.30 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Pendikspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.47, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 23% | Pendikspor 21%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Pendikspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Pendikspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.18 PPG, Pendikspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pendikspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.