Alanyaspor 1-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 30 as Alanyaspor welcome Kayserispor to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Alanyaspor's home record at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kayserispor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.40 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Kayserispor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Alanyaspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Kayserispor, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Kayserispor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 58% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 65% | Kayserispor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.07 xG and Kayserispor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.107 / defence 1.220 | Kayserispor attack 0.997 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.151. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Alanyaspor games / 65 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 24%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Kayserispor 4.17. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 90% | Kayserispor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Alanyaspor 2.07 / Kayserispor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.107 / def 1.220 | Kayserispor attack 0.997 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Kayserispor xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 51% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Record (5 meetings): Alanyaspor 4W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.11) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.09
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.47
1.40
Kayserispor xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
3%
32.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.40 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 20D 26L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.37 PPG from 65 outings (25W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.18 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 13W 10D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (10W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.40 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 19W 20D 26L in their last 65 games (1.18 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 25W 14D 26L in their last 65 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Alanyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 59%, Kayserispor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Alanyaspor and 62% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Alanyaspor's games and 59% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Alanyaspor's matches and 62% of Kayserispor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Kayserispor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kayserispor 1-0 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.07 xG and Kayserispor 1.40 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kayserispor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.22 against Kayserispor attack 1.00 / defence 1.26, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 24%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 65%, Kayserispor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Kayserispor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.18 PPG, Kayserispor 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.