Alanyaspor 1-0 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Giresunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 13 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Giresunspor have collected 0.00 PPG across 3 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 0D 3L. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Giresunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Alanyaspor. A 1.00 PPG lead over Giresunspor (1.00 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Giresunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Alanyaspor 33% | Giresunspor 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 67% | Giresunspor 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.21 xG and Giresunspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.889 / defence 1.498 | Giresunspor attack 0.714 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.071. Giresunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Alanyaspor games / 3 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 37% | Draw 28% | Giresunspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Giresunspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 33% | Giresunspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 37% | Draw 28% | Giresunspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Alanyaspor 1.21 / Giresunspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.889 / def 1.498 | Giresunspor attack 0.714 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Giresunspor xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 0 Giresunspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alanyaspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Giresunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Giresunspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Giresunspor's attack (0.71x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.51
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.36
1.15
Giresunspor xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.15 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Giresunspor sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Giresunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 0.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Giresunspor in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Giresunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Alanyaspor or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
0
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Giresunspor 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Giresunspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Alanyaspor) and 0% (Giresunspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Alanyaspor and 0% for Giresunspor.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Giresunspor in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 0% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 0% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Giresunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Giresunspor 1-0 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.21 xG and Giresunspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Giresunspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.50 against Giresunspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 37% | Draw 28% | Giresunspor 34%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 67%, Giresunspor 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Giresunspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Alanyaspor conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.