Alanyaspor 0-3 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 12 as Alanyaspor welcome Gaziantep FK to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gaziantep FK are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (46 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gaziantep FK trading profile (46 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Gaziantep FK 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 63% | Gaziantep FK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.66 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.982 / defence 1.042 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.673 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.264. Data: 47 Alanyaspor games / 46 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Gaziantep FK 5.56. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Alanyaspor dominate the H2H record, yet Gaziantep FK are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Alanyaspor 1.66 / Gaziantep FK 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.982 / def 1.042 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.673 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gaziantep FK xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor 0 - 3 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 54% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (4 meetings): Alanyaspor 3W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.51
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.55
0.89
Gaziantep FK xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
3%
29.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.89 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 12D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 0.80 PPG from 46 outings (10W 7D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.04 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 10W 6D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.62 points per game from 24 outings (4W 3D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 0.87 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 10W 7D 29L in their last 46 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 38% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Alanyaspor's matches and 54% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Alanyaspor 0-3 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.66 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 18%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Gaziantep FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 63%, Gaziantep FK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (46 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.04 PPG, Gaziantep FK 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.