Alanyaspor 2-5 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Fenerbahçe travel to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this season.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.90 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fenerbahçe in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 57% and Fenerbahçe 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 54% | Fenerbahçe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.68 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.263 / defence 1.255 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.971 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.222. Alanyaspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 Alanyaspor games / 28 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 42% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 34%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Fenerbahçe 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Fenerbahçe 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 42% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Alanyaspor 1.68 / Fenerbahçe 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.263 / def 1.255 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.971 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Fenerbahçe xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Alanyaspor 2 - 5 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.15
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.17
1.49
Fenerbahçe xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
6%
15.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.49 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 7D 8L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.64 PPG, Fenerbahçe on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 6W 4D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 1.57 points per game from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.54 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 71%.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.57 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Alanyaspor at 57%, Fenerbahçe at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Alanyaspor) and 50% (Fenerbahçe).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Alanyaspor's games and 79% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Alanyaspor 2-5 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.68 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.49 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.49 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.26 / defence 1.25 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 42% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 34%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Fenerbahçe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 54%, Fenerbahçe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.64 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.