Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 38%, yet in-form Fenerbahçe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Fenerbahçe travel to Alanya Oba Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters against Alanyaspor's 1 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 62% and Fenerbahçe 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.29 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.025 / defence 0.872 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Alanyaspor games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Fenerbahçe 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fenerbahçe (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Fenerbahçe 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Alanyaspor 1.29 / Fenerbahçe 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.025 / def 0.872 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Fenerbahçe xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 7W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.73
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.23
Fenerbahçe xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.23 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 17D 12L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.16 PPG from 37 outings (23W 11D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.06 points per game from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.27 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 17D 12L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 11D 3L in their last 37 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 44%, Fenerbahçe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 67% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 39%; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Alanyaspor's matches and 67% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.