Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alanyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Fenerbahçe travel to GAİN Park Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at GAİN Park Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Alanyaspor's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 53% versus Fenerbahçe 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 40% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 0.89 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.823 / defence 0.707 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.480 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.279. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.480 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Alanyaspor games / 53 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 21% | Draw 36% | Fenerbahçe 43%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 4.76 | Draw 2.78 | Fenerbahçe 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 20% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 21% | Draw 36% | Fenerbahçe 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Alanyaspor 0.89 / Fenerbahçe 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.823 / def 0.707 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.480 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Fenerbahçe xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Alanyaspor 2 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 21% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 43% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (9 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 6W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
21%
4.77
36%
2.80
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.23
1.34
Fenerbahçe xG
4.77
21%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
18.20
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.5 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.34 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 18D 19L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.32 PPG from 53 outings (37W 12D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.23 points per game from 26 outings (17W 7D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 60%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 16W 18D 19L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 37W 12D 4L in their last 53 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.58 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 46%, Fenerbahçe 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Alanyaspor) and 62% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 38%; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 58% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 62% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Alanyaspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Alanyaspor 2-3 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.89 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.34 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.71 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.48 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 21% | Draw 36% | Fenerbahçe 43%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 40%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.