Alanyaspor 0-1 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 50%, yet in-form Bodrum FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 30 as Alanyaspor welcome Bodrum FK to GAIN Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at GAIN Park Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAIN Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Bodrum FK have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Bodrum FK away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bodrum FK's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Alanyaspor's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 0 for Bodrum FK and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bodrum FK trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Bodrum FK 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 50% | Bodrum FK 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.55 xG and Bodrum FK 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.073 / defence 1.150 | Bodrum FK attack 0.716 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.207. Data: 66 Alanyaspor games / 28 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 27% | Bodrum FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Bodrum FK 4.17. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodrum FK (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 70% | Bodrum FK 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 27% | Bodrum FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Alanyaspor 1.55 / Bodrum FK 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.073 / def 1.150 | Bodrum FK attack 0.716 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Bodrum FK xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Alanyaspor 0 - 1 Bodrum FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Bodrum FK 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Bodrum FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Bodrum FK's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Bodrum FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.73
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.54
0.99
Bodrum FK xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
5%
20.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.99 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 7D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bodrum FK sit at 1.07 PPG from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.11 PPG, Bodrum FK on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 6W 3D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodrum FK have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.79 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK in 29%.
Defensively: Bodrum FK in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Bodrum FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 7D 13L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Bodrum FK away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.62 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
1
Draws
1
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 0, Bodrum FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Alanyaspor 0-1 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 69%, Bodrum FK 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Alanyaspor) and 31% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK in 46%; Bodrum FK in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 23% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 31% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bodrum FK defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Alanyaspor 0-1 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.55 xG and Bodrum FK 0.99 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Bodrum FK attack 0.72 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 50% | Draw 27% | Bodrum FK 24%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Bodrum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Bodrum FK 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.11 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodrum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.