Alanyaspor 5-4 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Başakşehir meet at GAIN Park Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at GAIN Park Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Alanyaspor, 1.40 for Başakşehir — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Alanyaspor, 3 for Başakşehir and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 2–4 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Başakşehir 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.57 xG and Başakşehir 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.948 / defence 0.904 | Başakşehir attack 0.906 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.178. Data: 57 Alanyaspor games / 57 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 21%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Başakşehir 4.76. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Alanyaspor 1.57 / Başakşehir 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.948 / def 0.904 | Başakşehir attack 0.906 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Başakşehir xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Alanyaspor 5 - 4 Başakşehir.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Alanyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (7 meetings): Alanyaspor 3W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.95) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.91x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.27
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.53
0.96
Başakşehir xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
4%
23.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.96 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 23D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.58 PPG from 57 outings (26W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.58 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Alanyaspor's home form reads 11W 11D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (11W 5D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.54 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 17W 23D 17L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 26W 12D 19L in their last 57 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.57 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 64%, Başakşehir 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Alanyaspor) and 43% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 43% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 43% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Başakşehir 5-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Başakşehir 5-4 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.57 xG and Başakşehir 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 0.96 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Başakşehir attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 21%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 47%, Başakşehir 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG, Başakşehir 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.