Alanyaspor 1-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Antalyaspor travel to GAIN Park Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at GAIN Park Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 0.90 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 3 for Antalyaspor and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 55% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Antalyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.55 xG and Antalyaspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.795 / defence 0.866 | Antalyaspor attack 0.906 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.333. Alanyaspor's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Alanyaspor games / 47 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Antalyaspor 4.00. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Antalyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Alanyaspor 1.55 / Antalyaspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.795 / def 0.866 | Antalyaspor attack 0.906 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Antalyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.84
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.59
1.05
Antalyaspor xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.05 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 14W 19D 14L from 47 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 18L across 47 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.30 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 7W 11D 5L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 4W 6D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 14W 19D 14L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 14W 15D 18L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.39 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
4
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Alanyaspor at 65%, Antalyaspor at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Alanyaspor) and 56% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Alanyaspor's games and 65% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 56% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.55 xG and Antalyaspor 1.05 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.87 against Antalyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 25%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 47%, Antalyaspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.