Adana Demirspor 3-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Adana Demirspor (all games): 0W 2D 2L across 4 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 0.25 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 50% versus Rizespor 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Adana Demirspor 25% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.37 xG and Rizespor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.824 / defence 1.126 | Rizespor attack 0.878 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.072. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Adana Demirspor games / 4 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 44% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 29%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Rizespor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 50% | Rizespor 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 44% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.37 / Rizespor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.824 / def 1.126 | Rizespor attack 0.878 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Rizespor xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 44% chance of winning, Rizespor a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Rizespor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-D-D-L. Rizespor (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.88x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.70
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.43
1.06
Rizespor xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.06 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rizespor's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 0.25 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Rizespor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 50%, Rizespor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Adana Demirspor) and 50% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 50% of games; Rizespor in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 25% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 50% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Rizespor 3-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.37 xG and Rizespor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Rizespor attack 0.88 / defence 1.48, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 44% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 29%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 25%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 0.50 PPG, Rizespor 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Rizespor shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.