Adana Demirspor 5-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Adana Demirspor 1.80 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 4–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 55% versus Kasımpaşa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 54% | Kasımpaşa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.236 / defence 0.668 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.930 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.287. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.668 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Adana Demirspor games / 65 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 64% | Draw 21% | Kasımpaşa 15%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Kasımpaşa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 64% | Draw 21% | Kasımpaşa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.91 / Kasımpaşa 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.236 / def 0.668 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.930 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Kasımpaşa xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Adana Demirspor 5 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 64% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (3 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.24x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.67
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.71
0.80
Kasımpaşa xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
45.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.80 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 28W 19D 18L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 24W 13D 28L from 65 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.58 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 2.03 PPG from 31 outings (18W 9D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 6D 15L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.58 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 28W 19D 18L in their last 65 games (1.58 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 24W 13D 28L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.03 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 48%, Kasımpaşa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Adana Demirspor) and 52% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 52% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 52% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Kasımpaşa 5-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.80 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.24 / defence 0.67 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 64% | Draw 21% | Kasımpaşa 15%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.58 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.