Adana Demirspor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş meet at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.70 for Beşiktaş. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Adana Demirspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 54% versus Beşiktaş 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 46% | Beşiktaş 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.46 xG and Beşiktaş 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.093 / defence 0.856 | Beşiktaş attack 0.826 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.092. Data: 24 Adana Demirspor games / 24 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 53% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 19%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Beşiktaş 5.26. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 30% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 53% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.46 / Beşiktaş 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.093 / def 0.856 | Beşiktaş attack 0.826 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Beşiktaş xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 53% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (1.09) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.83x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.54
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.23
0.77
Beşiktaş xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
22.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.77 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor's recent record stands at 11W 7D 6L from 24 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 7L across 24 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.54 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Adana Demirspor have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 2W 4D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.46 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 11W 7D 6L in their last 24 games (1.67 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 10W 7D 7L in their last 24 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.91 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Beşiktaş 4-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 27%, Beşiktaş 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Adana Demirspor) and 46% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Beşiktaş in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 64% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 46% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.46 xG and Beşiktaş 0.77 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Beşiktaş attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 53% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 19%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 46%, Beşiktaş 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.67 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.