Trabzonspor 2-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 17 as Trabzonspor welcome Hatayspor to Medical Park Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Medical Park Stadyumu, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 2D 0L this season (7 games, 2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor away from home this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Hatayspor trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 62% versus Hatayspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Hatayspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.66 xG and Hatayspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.147 / defence 0.956 | Hatayspor attack 0.841 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.173. Data: 16 Trabzonspor games / 16 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 54% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Hatayspor 4.76. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 71% | Hatayspor 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 54% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Trabzonspor 1.66 / Hatayspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.147 / def 0.956 | Hatayspor attack 0.841 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hatayspor xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 54% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Trabzonspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
54%
1.87
26%
3.90
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.61
0.94
Hatayspor xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
25.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.94 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 16 games, going 12W 3D 1L for 2.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.56 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 12W 3D 1L in their last 16 games (2.44 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 9W 2D 5L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.43 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
3
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 71%, Hatayspor 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Trabzonspor) and 29% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 43%; Hatayspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 29% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 29% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Hatayspor 2-0 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.66 xG and Hatayspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Hatayspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 54% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 21%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Hatayspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.