Trabzonspor 3-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beşiktaş travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trabzonspor at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beşiktaş have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Trabzonspor have won 0, Beşiktaş 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Trabzonspor 0–0 Beşiktaş — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Beşiktaş trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Beşiktaş 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Beşiktaş 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.30 xG and Beşiktaş 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.213 / defence 0.973 | Beşiktaş attack 1.171 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.370. Beşiktaş bring a tight defence (rating 0.797, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Trabzonspor's projected output down. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 39 games and Beşiktaş's last 39.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 29% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 40%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 3.50 | Draw 3.20 | Beşiktaş 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.30 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 5 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 29% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.30 / Beşiktaş 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.213 / def 0.973 | Beşiktaş attack 1.171 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor 3 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 5) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 29% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 39 games and Beşiktaş's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
29%
3.50
31%
3.20
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.86
1.56
Beşiktaş xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
6%
16.66
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.56 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 6D 15L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 2.18 PPG from 39 outings (25W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across their last 19 home games, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 19 away games (11W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.10 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Beşiktaş in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 18W 6D 15L in their last 39 games (1.54 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 25W 10D 4L in their last 39 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.11 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 3-0 Beşiktaş.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 4D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Trabzonspor 2-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 42%, Beşiktaş 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trabzonspor) and 53% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 63% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 53% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 84% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Beşiktaş 3-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.30 xG and Beşiktaş 1.56 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Beşiktaş attack 1.17 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 29% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 40%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Beşiktaş 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Trabzonspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.