İstanbulspor 0-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates İstanbulspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
İstanbulspor host Konyaspor at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
İstanbulspor — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Konyaspor — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, İstanbulspor have won 1, Konyaspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
İstanbulspor in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 49% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 56% | Konyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.77 xG and Konyaspor 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.842 / defence 1.379 | Konyaspor attack 0.879 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.267. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing İstanbulspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 İstanbulspor games / 55 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 42% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is İstanbulspor at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on İstanbulspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 70% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 42% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG İstanbulspor 1.77 / Konyaspor 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.842 / def 1.379 | Konyaspor attack 0.879 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: İstanbulspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Konyaspor xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
İstanbulspor 0 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 42% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making İstanbulspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both İstanbulspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): İstanbulspor 1W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are İstanbulspor and Konyaspor in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
İstanbulspor's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
İstanbulspor Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.94
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
3.31
1.54
Konyaspor xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.54 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, İstanbulspor have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 14W 8D 33L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 16W 21D 18L from 55 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: İstanbulspor on 0.91 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, İstanbulspor have posted 1.00 PPG from 28 outings (8W 4D 16L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 8W 11D 9L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 14W 8D 33L in their last 55 games (0.91 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 16W 21D 18L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Konyaspor's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between İstanbulspor and Konyaspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2022, when Konyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
İstanbulspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
İstanbulspor
2
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Konyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when İstanbulspor 0-0 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 54%, Konyaspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for İstanbulspor and 64% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of İstanbulspor's games and 57% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is İstanbulspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of İstanbulspor's matches and 64% of Konyaspor's.
Do İstanbulspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at İstanbulspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, as İstanbulspor and Konyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.77 xG and Konyaspor 1.54 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. İstanbulspor fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Konyaspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.38 against Konyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.38, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 42% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 32%, with İstanbulspor to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 56%, Konyaspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — İstanbulspor 0.91 PPG, Konyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.