Sivasspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Kayserispor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivasspor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sivasspor at 1.30 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 2 for Kayserispor and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 1–4 with Kayserispor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Kayserispor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 56% | Kayserispor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 2.25 xG and Kayserispor 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.980 / defence 0.887 | Kayserispor attack 1.056 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.457. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Sivasspor games / 73 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 57% | Draw 20% | Kayserispor 23%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.75 | Draw 5.00 | Kayserispor 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Kayserispor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 57% | Draw 20% | Kayserispor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Sivasspor 2.25 / Kayserispor 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.980 / def 0.887 | Kayserispor attack 1.056 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Kayserispor xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Sivasspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 57% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sivasspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Kayserispor?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Kayserispor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
57%
1.74
20%
5.02
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.62
1.37
Kayserispor xG
1.74
57%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
11%
9.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
2%
42.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.37 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 25W 19D 29L from 73 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 31L across 73 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.29 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 12W 14D 10L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 8W 9D 19L across 36 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.48 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 25W 19D 29L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 27W 15D 31L in their last 73 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.39 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sivasspor
1
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 5, Kayserispor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sivasspor 5-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Kayserispor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 64%, Kayserispor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sivasspor) and 64% (Kayserispor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 64% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sivasspor's matches and 64% of Kayserispor's.
Do Sivasspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, as Sivasspor and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 2.25 xG and Kayserispor 1.37 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Kayserispor attack 1.06 / defence 1.42, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 57% | Draw 20% | Kayserispor 23%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 56%, Kayserispor 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.29 PPG, Kayserispor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.