Sivasspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa meet at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 10:30 UTC.

Current Form

Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sivasspor 2W, Kasımpaşa 3W, 1D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sivasspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 60% and Kasımpaşa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.40 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.017 / defence 1.068 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.278 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.308. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Sivasspor games / 50 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 29% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 46%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 2.17. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.

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