Sivasspor 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Beşiktaş at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beşiktaş stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beşiktaş away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 1.20 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Sivasspor's games and 60% of Beşiktaş's (from Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Beşiktaş have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Sivasspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Sivasspor 0–2 Beşiktaş — a Beşiktaş win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Beşiktaş have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 55% | Beşiktaş 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sivasspor surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Beşiktaş have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.59 xG and Beşiktaş 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.952 / defence 1.037 | Beşiktaş attack 1.260 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.219. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack rating of 1.260, which lifts their away xG to 1.59. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 58 games and Beşiktaş's last 58.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 37%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.74 | Draw 3.74 | Beşiktaş 2.73. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.59) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Sivasspor 37% and Beşiktaş 37%, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Sivasspor 1.59 / Beşiktaş 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.952 / def 1.037 | Beşiktaş attack 1.260 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Sivasspor and Beşiktaş level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 37% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sivasspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sivasspor's last 58 games and Beşiktaş's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
37%
2.74
27%
3.74
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.18
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.59 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 16D 25L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.97 PPG from 58 outings (34W 12D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 6W 14D 8L across their last 28 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.79 points per game from their last 28 away games (15W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.91 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
Sivasspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sivasspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 17W 16D 25L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 34W 12D 12L in their last 58 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.14 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
0
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sivasspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 68%, Beşiktaş 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sivasspor) and 61% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sivasspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sivasspor's games and 61% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sivasspor's recent games and 61% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 89% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.59 xG and Beşiktaş 1.59 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Beşiktaş attack 1.26 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 55%, Beşiktaş 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.