Samsunspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor in Süper Lig (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Samsunspor at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2024, ended Samsunspor 1–1 Alanyaspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 51% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 45% | Alanyaspor 47%). Note also that Alanyaspor surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.43 xG and Alanyaspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.077 / defence 0.939 | Alanyaspor attack 0.820 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.289. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 50 games and Alanyaspor's last 49.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 45% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.21 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 4.06. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 13 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 45% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Samsunspor 1.43 / Alanyaspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.077 / def 0.939 | Alanyaspor attack 0.820 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Alanyaspor xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Samsunspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 13) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 45% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Samsunspor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (1.08) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 50 games and Alanyaspor's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.33
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.42
0.99
Alanyaspor xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.99 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 19W 10D 20L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Alanyaspor's form line: 14W 20D 15L from 49 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.37 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.88 PPG from their last 24 home games (13W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 6W 9D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 14W 20D 15L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.88 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 27 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Samsunspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2026: Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Alanyaspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Samsunspor) and 42% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 46% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Samsunspor's recent games and 42% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 67% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, as Samsunspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.43 xG and Alanyaspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Alanyaspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 45% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 25%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 45%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.37 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.