Rizespor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at : 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Rizespor's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Rizespor, 2 for Konyaspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 52% versus Konyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.97 xG and Konyaspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.702 / defence 1.272 | Konyaspor attack 0.779 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Rizespor games / 42 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Konyaspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Rizespor 0.97 / Konyaspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.702 / def 1.272 | Konyaspor attack 0.779 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Konyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Rizespor vs Konyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 30% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rizespor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Rizespor 4W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.70x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.78x) against Rizespor's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
30%
3.29
30%
3.39
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.13
1.16
Konyaspor xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.16 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 12D 17L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.07 PPG from 42 outings (11W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Rizespor against 1.07 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 8W 3D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.70 points per game from 20 outings (3W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Konyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.35 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Rizespor
3
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
From 9 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 40%, Konyaspor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Rizespor) and 55% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 35% of games; Konyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rizespor's recent matches and 65% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Rizespor's matches and 55% of Konyaspor's.
Do Rizespor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.