Rizespor 0-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rizespor at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Kayserispor meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kayserispor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Rizespor's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Kayserispor's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Rizespor, 2 for Kayserispor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Kayserispor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 59% versus Kayserispor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Kayserispor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.68 xG and Kayserispor 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.943 / defence 1.157 | Kayserispor attack 0.950 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.340. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Rizespor games / 49 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 32%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Kayserispor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Kayserispor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Rizespor 1.68 / Kayserispor 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.943 / def 1.157 | Kayserispor attack 0.950 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Kayserispor xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Rizespor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Rizespor 0 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Rizespor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kayserispor part of?
Rizespor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 40% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Rizespor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
Record (6 meetings): Rizespor 3W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Kayserispor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.95x) against Rizespor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.57
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.15
1.47
Kayserispor xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
6%
16.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.47 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 18W 9D 22L from 49 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 18D 19L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Rizespor against 1.10 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 11W 4D 9L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 3W 11D 10L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.18 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 18W 9D 22L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 12W 18D 19L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kayserispor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.54 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
4
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Kayserispor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 54%, Kayserispor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rizespor) and 46% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Rizespor's games and 58% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rizespor's recent games and 46% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Rizespor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Rizespor 0-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.68 xG and Kayserispor 1.47 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Kayserispor attack 0.95 / defence 1.39, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 40% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 32%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Kayserispor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kayserispor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.29 PPG, Kayserispor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.