Rizespor 0-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gaziantep FK make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 December 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 3L across 9 games at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this term (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 7L across 9 road games this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Rizespor against 1.40 for Gaziantep FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Gaziantep FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 61% | Gaziantep FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.67 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.971 / defence 1.033 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.591 / defence 1.479. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.136. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.479 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Rizespor games / 18 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 60% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 14%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Gaziantep FK 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 44% | Gaziantep FK 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 60% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Rizespor 1.67 / Gaziantep FK 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.971 / def 1.033 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.591 / def 1.479 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Gaziantep FK xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Rizespor 0 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 60% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rizespor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Gaziantep FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Gaziantep FK in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.59x) against Rizespor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.82
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.37
0.69
Gaziantep FK xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
37.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.69 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 5W 2D 11L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 7L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gaziantep FK by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 5W 2D 11L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Rizespor's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.78 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
4
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Rizespor 2-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 44%, Gaziantep FK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rizespor) and 56% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rizespor's recent matches and 44% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rizespor's recent games and 56% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gaziantep FK defy the odds to beat Rizespor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Rizespor 0-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.67 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.69 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.59 / defence 1.48, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 60% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 14%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Gaziantep FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 61%, Gaziantep FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.