Rizespor 6-3 Göztepe – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rizespor at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Göztepe.

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Fixture Analysis

Rizespor welcome Göztepe to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 36). Kick-off is Sunday 18 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Rizespor have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Rizespor's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Göztepe — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Göztepe have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 1.30 PPG versus Göztepe's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Rizespor's games and 70% of Göztepe's (from Rizespor's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rizespor have won 2, Göztepe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2024, ended Rizespor 0–3 Göztepe — a Göztepe win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Rizespor trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Göztepe trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Göztepe 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Göztepe 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.57 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.936 / defence 0.914 | Göztepe attack 0.812 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Data: built from Rizespor's last 71 games and Göztepe's last 33.

Result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.91 | Draw 3.94 | Göztepe 4.49. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Rizespor 60% (last 10 home games) | Göztepe 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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