Rizespor 0-4 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rizespor at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Beşiktaş.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Rizespor and Beşiktaş meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Rizespor (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Rizespor's home record over their last 9 home games: 6W 2D 1L (2.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Beşiktaş's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Beşiktaş's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Rizespor against 1.30 for Beşiktaş. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Beşiktaş and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Jan 2022, ended Rizespor 2–2 Beşiktaş — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).

Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 50% versus Beşiktaş 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 44% | Beşiktaş 56%). Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Rizespor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.68 xG and Beşiktaş 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.101 / defence 0.883 | Beşiktaş attack 1.211 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.248. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack rating of 1.211, which lifts their away xG to 1.33. Data: built from Rizespor's last 18 games and Beşiktaş's last 54.

Result probabilities: Rizespor 44% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 29%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.25 | Draw 3.79 | Beşiktaş 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 9 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 33% (last 9 home games) | Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights