Rizespor 3-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 3W 4D 3L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Rizespor's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Adana Demirspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Adana Demirspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.75 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.935 / defence 0.961 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.908 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.197. Data: 57 Rizespor games / 57 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Adana Demirspor 5.00. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Rizespor 1.75 / Adana Demirspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.935 / def 0.961 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.908 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Adana Demirspor xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Rizespor 3 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 52% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rizespor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (5 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 3W.
What form are Rizespor and Adana Demirspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.94) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.91x) against Rizespor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.61
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.04
Adana Demirspor xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
4%
28.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.04 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor's recent record stands at 21W 11D 25L from 57 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 29L across 57 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Rizespor against 0.91 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 14W 8D 6L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 2W 12D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 21W 11D 25L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 16D 29L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.79 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Rizespor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
0
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Adana Demirspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Rizespor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 39%, Adana Demirspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Rizespor) and 54% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 29% of games; Adana Demirspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Rizespor's recent matches and 64% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Rizespor's recent games and 54% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Adana Demirspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.75 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 52% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 20%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Adana Demirspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.30 PPG, Adana Demirspor 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.