Konyaspor 2-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kayserispor at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 24 December 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kayserispor are 1.40 PPG clear of Konyaspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kayserispor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Konyaspor are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Kayserispor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 48% | Kayserispor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.17 xG and Kayserispor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.725 / defence 0.951 | Kayserispor attack 1.096 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.288. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Konyaspor games / 52 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 29% | Kayserispor 40%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Kayserispor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Konyaspor dominate the H2H record, yet Kayserispor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 60% | Kayserispor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Dec 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 29% | Kayserispor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Konyaspor 1.17 / Kayserispor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.725 / def 0.951 | Kayserispor attack 1.096 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Kayserispor xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 24 December 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Konyaspor 2 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 32% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Konyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
Record (4 meetings): Konyaspor 3W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.72) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (1.10x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
32%
3.15
29%
3.50
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.34
Kayserispor xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.34 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 15W 21D 16L from 52 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 19L across 52 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.52 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 7W 9D 9L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 9W 5D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 21D 16L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 23W 10D 19L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Kayserispor's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.20 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kayserispor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 56%, Kayserispor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Konyaspor's games and 60% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Konyaspor's recent games and 64% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kayserispor 2-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.17 xG and Kayserispor 1.34 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.95 against Kayserispor attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 32% | Draw 29% | Kayserispor 40%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 48%, Kayserispor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Kayserispor's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.27 PPG, Kayserispor 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.