Konyaspor 1-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gaziantep FK arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Gaziantep FK in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Konyaspor, 3 for Gaziantep FK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Gaziantep FK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 42% | Gaziantep FK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.83 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.963 / defence 0.957 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.121 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.184. Data: 65 Konyaspor games / 64 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 50% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Gaziantep FK 3.85. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Gaziantep FK 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 50% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Konyaspor 1.83 / Gaziantep FK 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.963 / def 0.957 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.121 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Gaziantep FK xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (7 meetings): Konyaspor 3W | Draws 1 | Gaziantep FK 3W.
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (1.12x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.18
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.10
1.27
Gaziantep FK xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
4%
23.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.27 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 64 games, going 17W 20D 27L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.28 PPG from 64 outings (23W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.28 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 11W 9D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.90 points per game from 31 outings (8W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 17W 20D 27L in their last 64 games (1.11 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 23W 13D 28L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.35 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Konyaspor
2
Draws
3
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 5, Gaziantep FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 52%, Gaziantep FK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 74% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Konyaspor's games and 64% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Konyaspor's matches and 74% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Gaziantep FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.83 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.27 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.12 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 50% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 42%, Gaziantep FK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.11 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.