Konyaspor 1-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Konyaspor at 1.90 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Alanyaspor, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Konyaspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 62% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 51% | Alanyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.72 xG and Alanyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.164 / defence 0.823 | Alanyaspor attack 0.931 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.299. Data: 39 Konyaspor games / 39 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 4.76. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Alanyaspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Konyaspor 1.72 / Alanyaspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.164 / def 0.823 | Alanyaspor attack 0.931 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Alanyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 53% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Konyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 3 | Alanyaspor 4W.
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 1.16x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.86
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.00
Alanyaspor xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
4%
26.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.00 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 8D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.26 PPG from 39 outings (13W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.36 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Konyaspor's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (4W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 13W 10D 16L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.84 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 58%, Alanyaspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Konyaspor) and 47% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Konyaspor's games and 53% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Konyaspor's recent games and 47% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.72 xG and Alanyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 51%, Alanyaspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.36 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.