Kayserispor 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Trabzonspor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kayserispor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayserispor have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kayserispor 1.10 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kayserispor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kayserispor, 3 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Kayserispor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 55% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Trabzonspor 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.847 / defence 1.055 | Trabzonspor attack 1.127 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.237. Data: 68 Kayserispor games / 67 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 29% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Trabzonspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 60% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 29% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Kayserispor 1.21 / Trabzonspor 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.847 / def 1.055 | Trabzonspor attack 1.127 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Trabzonspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 29% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kayserispor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Record (5 meetings): Kayserispor 2W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
29%
3.45
30%
3.35
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.68
1.47
Trabzonspor xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.47 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 25W 15D 27L from 67 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 32W 10D 25L across 67 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.34 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 14W 8D 11L from 33 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 11W 5D 17L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 25W 15D 27L in their last 67 games (1.34 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 32W 10D 25L in their last 67 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.52 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 48%, Trabzonspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kayserispor) and 64% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Kayserispor's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Kayserispor's matches and 64% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Kayserispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Trabzonspor 1.47 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Trabzonspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 29% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 55%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.34 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.