Kayserispor 1-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Rizespor meet at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kayserispor have posted 6W 1D 3L at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
Rizespor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Kayserispor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Rizespor's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Kayserispor, 3 for Rizespor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Rizespor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Rizespor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.93 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.058 / defence 0.925 | Rizespor attack 0.933 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.195. Data: 68 Kayserispor games / 68 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 58% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Rizespor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Rizespor lead the H2H ledger, but Kayserispor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 40% | Rizespor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 58% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Kayserispor 1.93 / Rizespor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.058 / def 0.925 | Rizespor attack 0.933 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rizespor xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Rizespor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Rizespor part of?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 58% chance of winning, Rizespor a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kayserispor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Record (5 meetings): Kayserispor 1W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 1.06x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.93x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.56
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.96
1.03
Rizespor xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
34.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.03 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 20W 22D 26L from 68 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 31L across 68 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.28 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 12W 12D 10L from 34 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 8W 3D 23L across 34 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.24 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 20W 22D 26L in their last 68 games (1.21 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 25W 12D 31L in their last 68 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Rizespor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.41 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 4, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 53%, Rizespor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kayserispor) and 68% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 26% of games; Rizespor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 53% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kayserispor's matches and 68% of Rizespor's.
Do Kayserispor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Rizespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Rizespor 1-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.93 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kayserispor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Rizespor attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 58% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 20%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.21 PPG, Rizespor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.