Kasımpaşa 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 October 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 0.90 PPG versus Konyaspor's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Konyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against Kasımpaşa's 0 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Konyaspor have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Konyaspor trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 67% and Konyaspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Konyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.46 xG and Konyaspor 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.987 / defence 1.110 | Konyaspor attack 1.159 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.286. Data: 43 Kasımpaşa games / 42 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 90% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.46 / Konyaspor 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.987 / def 1.110 | Konyaspor attack 1.159 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Konyaspor xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 32% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 4 | Konyaspor 4W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.99x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.58
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.12
1.65
Konyaspor xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
6%
16.41
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.65 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 16D 13L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.33 PPG from 42 outings (16W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.31 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 8D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.36 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 16D 13L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Konyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.15 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
6
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 75%, Konyaspor at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Kasımpaşa) and 50% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kasımpaşa's games and 65% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 50% of Konyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, as Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.46 xG and Konyaspor 1.65 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Konyaspor attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 40%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Konyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.31 PPG, Konyaspor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.