Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Fenerbahçe at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.60 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 encounters against Kasımpaşa's 0 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 54% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 40% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.13 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.899 / defence 0.899 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Kasımpaşa games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 33% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 40%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 30% | Fenerbahçe 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 33% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.13 / Fenerbahçe 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.899 / def 0.899 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fenerbahçe xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 December 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 33% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 8W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.90x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.63
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.40
1.27
Fenerbahçe xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.27 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 13D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.16 PPG from 37 outings (23W 11D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 7D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.06 points per game from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.27 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 11D 3L in their last 37 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.22 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 44%, Fenerbahçe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Kasımpaşa) and 67% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 39%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 67% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.