Kasımpaşa 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kasımpaşa face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Fenerbahçe at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 3D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Fenerbahçe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 8 encounters against Kasımpaşa's 0 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 8 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 66% and Fenerbahçe 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kasımpaşa 63% | Fenerbahçe 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.22 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.046 / defence 1.265 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.297 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.195. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Kasımpaşa games / 41 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 53%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 1.89. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 90% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.22 / Fenerbahçe 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.046 / def 1.265 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.297 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Fenerbahçe xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 22% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Record (8 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 8W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.05x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
22%
4.63
26%
3.91
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.18
1.96
Fenerbahçe xG
4.63
22%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
14%
7.11
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
3%
32.93
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.96 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 15D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.32 PPG from 41 outings (29W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 7D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.20 points per game from 20 outings (13W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.41 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 12W 15D 14L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 29W 8D 4L in their last 41 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.10 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 75%, Fenerbahçe at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Kasımpaşa and 65% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kasımpaşa's games and 60% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 65% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, as Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.22 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.96 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.05 / defence 1.26 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.30 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 22% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 53%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 63%, Fenerbahçe 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.