Kasımpaşa 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Kasımpaşa welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Kasımpaşa have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 61% versus Fatih Karagümrük 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 66% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 2.07 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.219 / defence 1.365 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.743 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.147. Data: 61 Kasımpaşa games / 61 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 56% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 19%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük lead the H2H ledger, but Kasımpaşa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 56% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Kasımpaşa 2.07 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.219 / def 1.365 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.743 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 56% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 3W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
56%
1.77
25%
4.03
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.24
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
2%
42.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.16 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 12D 26L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.28 PPG from 61 outings (20W 18D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.33 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 13W 5D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.72 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 23W 12D 26L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 18D 23L in their last 61 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.47 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 70%, Fatih Karagümrük at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Kasımpaşa and 60% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, as Kasımpaşa and Fatih Karagümrük drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.07 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.22 / defence 1.36 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 56% | Draw 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 19%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Fatih Karagümrük 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.33 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.