Kasımpaşa 1-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 1W 5D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Eyüpspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 0.90 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kasımpaşa lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Eyüpspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Eyüpspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 57% | Eyüpspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Eyüpspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.743 / defence 1.204 | Eyüpspor attack 0.881 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.225. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Kasımpaşa games / 61 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Eyüpspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Eyüpspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.09 / Eyüpspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.743 / def 1.204 | Eyüpspor attack 0.881 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Eyüpspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 28% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
Record (3 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.74) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.88x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
28%
3.62
35%
2.87
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.39
1.30
Eyüpspor xG
3.62
28%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.30 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 15W 23D 23L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 26L across 61 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.23 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 6W 12D 12L from 30 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 7W 8D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 23D 23L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 20W 15D 26L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Eyüpspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 67%, Eyüpspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kasımpaşa) and 43% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 30% of games; Eyüpspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kasımpaşa's games and 50% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 43% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Eyüpspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.74 / defence 1.20 against Eyüpspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 38%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 57%, Eyüpspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.11 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.